***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9.8 16.4 20.7 231.2 88.7 81.4 0.0 3.7 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 10.2 25.3 19.5 246.2 91.6 82.2 0.3 2.8 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 15.4 20.5 19.9 221.6 87.3 80.1 0.5 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 16.3 30.6 23.4 206.5 87.1 78.6 2.6 8.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 14.1 22.1 22.9 214.7 86.4 79.9 0.8 4.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 14.6 20.5 26.3 265.4 92.8 84.8 0.6 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 8.3 15.6 19.6 255.7 91.2 82.5 0.2 2.2 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 15.9 34.2 24.7 223.7 88.9 81.9 4.4 9.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 9.5 14.4 20.5 208.7 85.0 79.2 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 13.1 20.6 22.6 197.5 85.4 78.6 1.4 4.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 11.4 20.0 22.2 213.7 86.5 79.9 1.0 4.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 9.4 17.9 23.4 237.8 89.5 82.9 1.7 4.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 10.5 17.3 26.1 224.8 89.5 81.7 2.2 5.3 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 11.7 23.5 23.7 208.3 87.5 77.3 2.7 6.1 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.7 11.7 18.0 177.8 80.3 72.8 1.7 5.1 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 8.8 22.5 25.1 239.1 90.5 82.6 0.7 3.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 7.3 15.2 20.0 266.7 92.7 84.3 0.0 1.9 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 13.1 20.5 23.6 198.7 86.7 78.9 2.0 5.3 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 13.3 21.3 19.9 240.1 90.6 81.6 0.3 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 10.7 19.0 30.8 234.4 91.3 84.1 2.2 4.5 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 13.5 19.0 20.7 219.4 87.7 80.5 0.4 4.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 10.3 24.9 21.4 263.4 92.1 84.9 0.0 2.6 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 11.5 20.5 20.2 230.7 89.2 79.7 0.3 3.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 15.4 20.9 21.1 197.7 85.9 77.1 1.9 4.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 15.3 20.8 23.2 217.9 87.1 80.8 0.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 7.0 14.3 26.7 260.1 93.1 86.4 0.9 2.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 9.8 17.5 21.7 229.1 87.6 81.6 0.2 3.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 8.6 22.3 21.2 202.4 85.4 76.8 0.9 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 24.1 35.9 25.6 210.9 88.2 80.9 4.1 7.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 10.5 19.4 19.5 238.4 89.8 81.4 0.3 1.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------