***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.8 4.5 0.0 44.3 49.3 2.8 4.3 6.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.1 4.7 0.1 47.8 50.0 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.9 5.2 0.3 50.3 52.1 3.7 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.5 -0.3 1.3 -0.4 44.6 45.8 -1.6 0.0 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.1 3.3 0.2 50.2 51.6 3.8 5.1 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.3 2.1 0.2 50.0 51.7 3.2 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.7 4.5 0.0 46.2 49.0 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -1.3 2.7 0.1 49.9 50.9 -2.1 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.3 4.3 0.3 52.4 53.3 4.2 6.0 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.2 3.5 0.3 52.0 52.6 4.0 4.9 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.7 3.6 0.3 52.2 53.4 3.8 5.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.4 5.9 3.1 0.2 50.6 51.9 3.9 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 3.0 0.3 50.3 52.4 3.5 5.0 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.5 4.9 0.3 53.0 52.8 4.6 5.3 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.2 2.4 -0.3 44.9 46.3 3.0 4.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.4 2.9 0.2 49.5 51.8 4.1 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.5 4.5 0.0 45.8 48.8 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.0 3.4 0.3 52.5 52.7 2.7 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.2 5.0 0.2 49.2 51.3 2.9 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.0 46.8 48.7 0.9 2.2 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.6 4.8 0.3 51.6 52.5 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.9 4.8 0.1 47.3 49.8 2.9 4.4 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 5.3 0.4 50.9 52.9 3.1 4.4 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.6 4.8 0.4 53.6 53.7 4.3 5.6 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.7 3.1 -0.1 46.2 48.4 2.3 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.5 2.2 0.0 47.1 49.5 3.8 4.6 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.5 3.9 4.0 0.0 44.7 48.6 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.1 2.0 -0.3 45.0 46.9 4.0 5.6 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.4 2.8 0.2 51.0 51.8 0.7 2.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.8 3.9 4.7 0.1 47.5 50.4 2.3 4.0 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------