***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.02.2018.-11.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.5 5.2 0.2 50.7 51.9 3.5 7.4 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.5 6.4 5.1 0.0 48.7 50.9 4.1 6.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.5 5.7 0.2 49.3 51.5 4.7 7.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.8 0.8 2.6 0.3 49.7 52.5 -0.1 0.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 7.8 3.9 0.4 49.5 52.9 5.3 7.9 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.9 3.1 0.7 52.0 54.7 5.0 6.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.9 5.7 5.1 0.0 48.0 50.6 2.8 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -0.6 3.3 0.3 48.7 52.4 -2.3 -0.6 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.1 4.7 0.4 49.8 52.7 5.9 8.1 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.8 3.9 0.3 48.8 52.4 5.8 7.9 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.8 3.9 0.4 50.2 53.0 5.5 7.8 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.2 7.7 3.8 0.4 51.1 53.6 5.7 7.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.3 7.4 3.3 0.5 51.2 54.1 5.0 7.3 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.2 4.9 0.0 46.4 50.2 6.1 7.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.1 3.4 0.5 49.5 53.7 4.7 7.2 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.7 3.5 0.4 51.4 53.3 5.6 7.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.6 5.1 -0.1 47.1 50.5 4.3 5.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.2 3.9 0.2 49.0 51.7 5.0 6.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 6.9 5.4 0.0 48.1 51.0 3.8 7.0 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 0.8 3.8 1.9 0.1 47.2 51.4 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.6 5.2 0.3 49.8 52.3 5.2 7.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.3 5.2 -0.1 46.4 50.2 4.6 6.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.5 6.3 5.7 0.0 46.8 50.9 5.0 7.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.1 4.9 0.1 47.8 51.1 6.2 8.1 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.8 6.5 3.7 0.3 50.1 52.3 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.1 7.6 3.2 0.5 53.1 53.9 4.8 7.3 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.9 7.4 4.7 0.2 50.1 51.9 4.6 7.4 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.0 3.0 0.4 50.3 53.2 4.9 8.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.1 3.6 3.3 0.1 47.3 51.3 2.0 3.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.9 5.1 0.1 49.1 51.2 3.8 6.9 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------