***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.01.2018.-04.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.6 1.9 4.5 -0.3 43.6 46.8 1.8 2.4 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.9 2.3 4.5 -0.4 41.0 46.3 1.8 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 3.7 5.0 -0.2 43.6 47.5 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -2.6 1.7 -0.5 42.0 44.7 -3.0 -2.0 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.5 3.0 -0.3 43.7 46.2 3.3 3.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.6 2.0 -0.4 43.4 45.2 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.9 1.9 4.5 -0.4 41.2 46.0 1.4 4.1 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -2.4 2.5 -0.3 42.8 45.8 -3.1 -1.9 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.6 3.9 -0.2 44.3 47.4 3.5 4.6 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.9 3.2 -0.3 43.7 46.6 3.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.5 2.9 -0.4 42.6 45.4 3.2 4.0 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.0 2.9 -0.3 42.5 45.5 3.3 4.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.0 2.2 -0.4 44.0 45.2 3.2 4.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.2 4.4 -0.3 44.7 46.9 3.8 5.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.8 2.5 -0.3 44.7 46.2 3.0 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.5 3.7 2.5 -0.5 41.5 44.7 3.4 4.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.9 2.8 4.5 -0.5 41.9 45.7 1.4 4.2 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.6 3.5 3.4 -0.2 44.6 47.2 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 2.8 4.8 -0.3 42.1 46.7 2.2 4.2 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.9 1.4 -0.3 45.0 45.9 0.3 2.1 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.1 3.9 4.5 -0.2 45.1 47.6 3.3 4.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.5 3.3 4.7 -0.5 42.2 45.8 2.2 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.9 3.6 5.1 -0.3 44.3 47.4 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.5 4.6 4.3 -0.2 44.7 47.5 3.7 5.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.5 2.9 -0.4 43.3 46.0 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.8 2.2 -0.2 42.3 46.1 3.1 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.0 3.9 -0.4 43.1 46.4 2.2 3.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.3 2.1 -0.4 42.3 44.9 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.6 2.7 -0.2 44.8 46.7 0.7 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.6 2.5 4.5 -0.3 41.7 46.6 1.7 3.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------