***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.4 3.4 4.2 0.2 52.1 49.9 0.6 2.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.2 4.5 0.3 52.7 51.9 0.3 2.1 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 4.8 0.4 53.9 51.8 1.2 3.6 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.1 1.0 -0.3 48.7 47.6 -2.6 0.2 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.0 2.7 -0.1 52.6 49.3 1.6 5.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.6 3.8 1.1 -0.5 46.0 46.2 2.4 5.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.8 4.2 0.2 49.4 50.7 -0.1 1.8 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.9 1.9 -0.3 50.8 48.6 -2.4 -0.9 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.7 3.8 0.1 53.8 50.8 2.1 4.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.0 2.8 -0.1 52.5 50.0 1.4 4.3 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.9 3.0 0.0 52.9 50.7 1.7 5.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.8 2.3 -0.2 50.8 49.3 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.3 2.1 -0.4 48.8 47.5 2.1 4.9 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 4.6 0.4 55.2 52.0 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.8 2.3 -0.1 48.0 48.4 1.5 3.9 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.9 2.2 -0.2 49.6 49.0 2.6 6.0 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.6 4.3 0.3 50.9 52.2 0.4 1.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.9 3.5 2.7 -0.1 51.9 49.6 1.1 3.2 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.0 4.7 0.4 54.4 52.5 -0.1 2.1 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.1 0.6 -0.6 47.9 45.9 -1.0 2.1 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.9 4.4 0.2 54.7 51.1 2.5 4.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.2 3.3 4.6 0.5 54.1 52.9 0.6 1.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.5 5.0 0.5 56.2 52.9 0.5 2.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.9 4.3 0.2 53.7 51.5 1.1 3.9 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.4 2.8 -0.1 49.7 48.6 0.7 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 1.1 -0.7 43.6 44.6 1.8 5.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.1 4.4 3.6 0.0 51.0 49.2 0.6 3.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.1 1.8 -0.2 49.9 48.5 2.3 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 2.4 2.0 -0.2 51.5 48.6 -0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.4 4.4 0.3 52.3 51.2 0.0 2.2 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------