***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.5 4.2 0.1 50.6 50.7 2.4 3.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 3.8 3.6 4.6 0.4 54.0 53.3 1.2 3.4 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 4.7 4.8 5.4 0.8 55.3 55.8 2.6 4.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -1.2 40.8 40.2 -3.1 0.1 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 4.5 4.4 3.5 0.7 52.8 54.1 2.9 4.3 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.2 4.6 2.4 1.1 56.7 57.2 2.3 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 3.3 3.1 4.2 0.2 53.4 51.5 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 -1.0 -1.2 3.0 0.9 52.5 54.0 -2.2 -1.3 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 5.2 5.6 4.7 1.0 55.3 56.4 2.9 5.0 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 4.2 4.6 4.0 1.1 54.1 55.7 2.5 4.1 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 4.5 4.7 4.5 1.3 57.3 58.2 2.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 4.8 4.9 3.4 1.0 53.4 55.3 2.2 4.5 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 3.7 3.5 4.4 1.4 55.7 57.8 2.6 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 4.6 5.6 5.6 1.2 55.2 57.2 2.6 4.4 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.1 1.3 -1.3 39.2 38.1 1.8 4.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 4.9 5.1 3.6 1.1 54.4 56.3 3.2 4.8 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 3.1 2.8 3.9 0.1 51.9 50.4 1.3 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 2.4 2.5 3.7 1.2 52.9 55.4 1.4 2.3 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 3.5 4.3 5.0 0.7 55.8 55.7 1.4 3.2 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 1.4 1.2 2.0 0.8 50.9 52.4 0.3 1.2 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 4.5 4.5 5.2 0.8 54.2 55.3 2.7 4.3 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 3.6 4.4 4.6 0.4 55.1 53.1 1.6 3.3 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 3.1 4.4 5.6 1.2 57.1 59.1 1.9 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 4.1 5.4 5.5 1.4 56.0 58.0 2.9 3.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 3.4 3.1 3.1 0.0 48.8 48.7 2.1 3.1 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 3.7 3.4 2.3 0.5 49.2 50.9 2.4 3.4 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 3.9 3.5 3.8 0.1 50.1 50.1 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.1 0.9 -1.0 42.6 41.7 2.6 4.7 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 2.1 2.4 3.3 1.3 53.5 55.7 0.1 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 3.5 3.6 4.6 0.4 53.8 53.5 1.1 3.2 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------