***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.01.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 -4.5 -2.3 -2.5 0.5 50.2 52.5 -3.2 -2.3 -0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.6 -2.3 0.6 51.8 53.8 -4.7 -2.7 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.1 -2.2 0.7 52.0 54.3 -2.8 -1.2 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -4.8 -5.6 -5.8 -0.1 45.2 48.2 -8.7 -5.2 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -1.7 -2.4 -4.6 0.4 47.7 52.3 -4.1 -2.2 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.1 -4.1 -7.7 -0.4 42.5 46.7 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.4 0.5 50.3 53.2 -4.3 -2.3 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -6.9 -7.6 -6.9 0.0 47.1 49.7 -9.0 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.9 -4.1 0.8 50.8 54.7 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.7 -5.9 0.4 49.9 52.3 -3.8 -2.7 -1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.4 -5.3 0.5 48.9 52.8 -3.4 -2.4 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -3.3 -6.3 0.1 46.6 50.3 -4.5 -3.1 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.4 -6.5 -0.1 44.4 48.8 -3.2 -2.2 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.5 -4.1 0.7 50.6 54.2 -3.4 -1.5 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.8 -3.8 -4.6 0.1 45.5 49.3 -5.0 -3.5 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -2.2 -6.2 0.1 45.6 49.6 -3.1 -2.0 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 -2.5 -3.1 -2.5 0.5 49.8 52.9 -4.7 -3.1 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -4.3 -6.1 0.5 50.3 53.0 -4.9 -4.3 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 0.7 52.1 54.2 -4.8 -2.5 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -9.3 -7.7 -7.8 -0.1 47.7 49.3 -9.0 -7.4 -5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -2.6 -2.9 0.7 50.5 54.1 -3.5 -2.6 -0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.8 -2.3 0.7 51.8 54.0 -5.1 -2.9 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -2.1 -2.5 0.7 50.8 54.4 -4.0 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.0 -2.2 -4.2 0.7 51.5 54.6 -4.2 -2.3 -1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -3.1 -3.7 0.2 48.0 50.6 -4.1 -2.8 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.1 -7.1 -0.6 41.6 45.3 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 -1.8 -2.7 -3.0 0.4 50.1 51.7 -4.0 -2.8 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -3.3 -4.5 -5.6 0.0 45.9 48.6 -6.0 -3.9 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -3.9 -4.3 -7.0 0.3 49.4 51.7 -7.2 -4.3 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 0.7 51.4 53.9 -4.5 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------