***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 33.5 37.5 55.1 135.7 79.4 70.0 17.1 24.7 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 35.5 37.7 47.7 131.4 74.4 67.0 13.9 27.0 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 49.3 55.2 53.8 133.0 77.7 68.6 24.4 34.0 40.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 55.8 59.4 59.6 129.0 73.4 65.4 29.7 42.2 56.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 44.0 45.1 59.3 128.3 73.3 66.2 31.6 37.3 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 33.9 35.7 50.8 117.1 65.6 61.7 24.5 30.9 36.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 33.5 35.5 46.7 131.7 74.4 67.1 16.3 25.9 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 69.7 71.2 64.6 128.0 74.6 67.7 37.3 60.6 69.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 32.5 34.0 59.3 127.2 74.2 66.2 21.2 27.6 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 43.6 39.1 61.7 123.8 71.9 65.4 28.5 32.5 36.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 35.1 40.8 55.6 121.1 69.3 63.1 20.2 30.6 39.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 43.1 43.6 56.9 125.0 73.9 66.0 16.2 29.5 37.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 50.7 45.0 56.5 121.1 70.2 64.4 23.2 31.9 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 63.7 68.0 63.9 125.3 71.7 66.3 34.0 51.1 60.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 34.0 51.6 54.7 127.2 71.4 61.9 16.2 26.3 42.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 36.0 36.5 54.6 121.7 69.7 63.5 19.5 29.0 35.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 35.3 38.0 46.5 131.7 72.3 66.2 14.8 27.2 37.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 40.7 43.1 66.2 126.8 74.8 67.8 23.9 33.4 41.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 41.6 46.2 49.5 131.9 75.6 67.6 19.3 31.5 38.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 46.9 54.9 91.2 138.8 78.9 72.7 23.0 29.6 40.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 38.7 43.7 58.9 133.7 78.7 68.9 24.3 30.7 39.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 39.4 39.9 49.7 133.3 74.2 67.8 15.2 30.4 34.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 38.6 41.5 52.9 131.4 76.2 67.7 15.6 31.1 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 50.0 51.5 60.5 126.6 74.2 67.1 33.5 44.1 46.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 42.6 47.2 63.6 137.5 79.5 70.6 24.3 33.8 40.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 39.2 41.9 58.1 129.0 73.7 68.3 16.6 26.9 37.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 40.1 45.3 58.1 135.7 79.1 70.3 20.3 28.5 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 31.5 38.9 53.3 122.4 68.6 61.8 18.6 25.3 37.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 67.7 71.4 74.0 131.0 75.8 70.0 40.5 54.8 62.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 37.3 41.0 49.1 132.2 75.0 67.7 19.0 26.1 32.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------