***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.3 12.4 128.8 70.4 56.3 0.6 4.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.6 10.9 129.3 69.7 58.2 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.7 12.2 128.1 70.8 55.9 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 14.0 13.7 127.6 71.5 57.1 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.2 12.7 115.7 64.3 53.6 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.1 11.2 109.6 63.5 53.9 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.8 8.9 10.8 130.8 70.6 58.9 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.0 13.5 110.3 60.9 52.2 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.3 12.9 113.4 63.4 52.6 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.7 13.0 107.2 59.8 51.3 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.2 11.7 109.4 60.3 52.7 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.0 11.9 110.8 61.1 52.7 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 11.8 110.2 59.2 52.6 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.0 14.3 119.0 66.6 54.6 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 9.7 11.8 14.0 140.8 74.7 60.2 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.8 9.5 11.5 110.9 60.5 53.1 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.9 10.5 125.9 69.9 57.7 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.4 13.9 109.2 61.6 51.6 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 14.7 11.4 131.0 70.3 57.8 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.9 19.8 116.3 62.5 52.8 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.5 9.6 12.9 122.9 66.0 54.3 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 11.7 11.2 128.4 69.3 57.9 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.5 12.5 12.2 131.5 72.4 56.9 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.0 13.3 117.2 65.2 53.8 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.6 11.1 14.2 130.4 69.8 56.7 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.8 13.0 123.7 67.9 56.4 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.6 11.2 13.0 128.3 69.1 56.7 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.3 10.4 12.7 126.0 70.7 57.2 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.6 15.5 111.1 62.0 51.9 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 10.2 11.3 129.2 70.9 57.8 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------