***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.9 8.7 13.7 132.3 69.6 58.2 0.4 1.7 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.0 5.2 11.1 117.4 67.0 53.9 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.5 15.0 13.4 130.1 69.8 57.4 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 15.4 16.1 15.9 145.6 75.0 62.1 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 16.8 17.6 14.9 131.4 71.6 59.5 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.9 12.4 115.5 64.4 56.9 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.2 10.9 119.2 68.6 54.3 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 23.8 14.7 115.6 64.5 55.9 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.6 14.9 124.1 67.1 57.6 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.0 12.2 14.7 115.1 63.8 55.5 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.9 13.6 120.4 68.5 56.9 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.2 13.0 114.6 65.0 55.4 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.1 12.4 13.4 116.9 64.4 55.7 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.7 14.6 111.8 63.5 54.6 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 9.6 12.8 15.8 150.4 76.1 62.4 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.2 13.3 121.5 66.6 57.2 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.7 5.6 10.4 117.0 67.6 53.7 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.4 15.0 110.8 62.6 54.6 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 3.8 7.8 11.7 120.7 68.0 55.2 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 13.6 21.0 124.7 69.7 58.5 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.8 11.3 14.7 132.1 70.8 58.9 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.0 5.6 11.3 121.6 68.7 55.4 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.9 7.4 12.7 122.2 69.4 56.6 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.7 14.0 113.4 63.1 54.8 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.7 15.3 135.1 71.7 59.7 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.5 13.3 118.8 66.8 56.7 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 9.3 13.8 127.0 68.8 57.6 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 14.8 140.1 72.5 61.0 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.6 16.7 114.3 64.8 55.6 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.3 6.4 11.9 122.5 68.8 55.2 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------