***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 10.8 13.4 15.9 138.4 72.8 66.0 2.4 6.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.0 11.7 14.4 140.1 75.9 64.2 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.8 15.9 140.4 74.4 66.3 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 8.7 16.1 19.3 161.4 80.8 68.2 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 9.6 13.7 17.6 144.5 76.6 64.2 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 48 52 100 8.9 12.3 16.6 149.2 75.8 66.5 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.8 12.3 13.7 135.9 73.4 63.1 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 15.4 18.3 20.1 161.1 78.6 69.7 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 7.4 11.2 18.1 148.9 78.4 66.2 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 11.4 15.1 18.0 145.3 75.8 65.6 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.8 11.7 16.9 138.0 74.1 62.5 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 8.2 10.4 18.3 157.7 77.7 68.9 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 7.3 11.2 17.3 146.5 74.8 65.6 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.7 21.3 18.7 138.5 73.2 65.0 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.7 15.5 18.6 167.1 78.9 68.8 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 6.0 9.6 17.3 149.6 75.5 65.8 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.8 11.4 14.4 143.8 76.3 65.1 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 11.9 15.6 19.3 149.9 76.9 68.1 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.9 11.6 14.8 139.4 75.2 64.5 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 11.2 18.8 28.7 173.5 83.5 73.4 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 10.1 12.8 18.3 152.8 79.5 68.3 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.6 13.0 15.2 144.9 75.5 65.3 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.6 12.1 15.6 139.1 72.9 65.3 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 11.4 19.7 18.1 144.8 75.6 67.2 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.8 12.9 18.8 147.9 77.2 67.3 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.3 12.0 19.0 162.9 77.2 71.9 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 10.7 12.6 17.1 142.5 74.4 66.7 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 6.3 8.9 17.7 157.8 78.0 67.0 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 21.6 26.3 22.4 157.6 79.8 71.0 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 10.7 12.7 14.6 138.8 75.2 64.6 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------