***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 7.8 8.8 13.1 143.5 74.7 71.4 0.0 2.6 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.1 10.8 11.2 139.1 73.3 67.1 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 14.3 13.0 12.3 132.2 73.3 69.4 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.7 6.4 10.6 84.9 56.6 51.9 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 10.6 9.7 14.1 120.3 69.1 65.3 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.7 5.5 10.6 93.3 58.0 54.6 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 7.0 9.5 11.3 141.5 76.1 67.2 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 14.9 13.2 16.3 124.6 70.8 66.5 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.7 13.4 121.0 69.5 66.7 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 9.9 10.8 16.0 127.0 72.1 68.1 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 3.8 7.7 13.4 114.7 67.3 63.3 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 5.1 8.2 13.7 116.1 67.1 63.1 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.9 8.5 14.0 110.4 64.6 60.8 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 9.0 10.9 16.2 131.4 72.0 67.9 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.7 6.4 55.4 48.0 42.4 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 3.3 5.4 12.4 104.4 62.7 59.5 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 5.6 7.2 11.2 138.9 73.7 65.9 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.0 17.9 137.7 75.9 71.9 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.7 11.6 136.5 72.5 67.6 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 9.1 10.5 21.7 140.0 77.8 71.7 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.8 12.8 13.0 124.4 72.2 67.3 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 9.6 8.5 11.9 137.0 72.5 66.2 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 11.5 7.2 12.3 132.2 72.3 68.0 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.1 13.7 15.2 130.4 72.3 69.1 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.7 13.0 15.3 135.5 73.8 69.4 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 2.5 4.1 12.7 109.6 63.8 59.4 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 10.4 11.0 14.1 144.9 74.9 71.6 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.8 4.8 8.2 69.5 51.6 47.0 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 21.0 24.2 19.4 141.0 76.2 72.3 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.1 12.6 11.4 138.5 74.7 68.3 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------