***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.4 3.9 -0.3 43.0 45.5 3.0 4.5 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.9 4.2 -0.2 45.4 46.8 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.4 4.4 -0.4 43.3 45.4 3.7 4.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.5 -0.1 1.1 -0.3 46.4 46.1 -1.7 0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.8 2.2 -0.7 40.8 42.2 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.6 1.8 0.0 52.6 50.6 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.0 4.0 -0.3 43.3 46.1 1.8 3.9 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -1.8 1.7 -0.7 42.1 42.0 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.5 3.0 -0.8 39.2 41.3 4.2 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.3 2.2 -0.8 40.4 41.4 3.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.9 2.5 -0.5 42.8 43.8 3.7 5.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.7 2.2 -0.5 43.5 44.2 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.7 2.3 -0.3 47.8 47.3 3.4 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.8 3.8 -0.6 40.7 43.6 4.4 5.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.5 2.5 0.1 49.4 51.0 3.3 4.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.1 2.2 -0.3 46.9 46.4 3.9 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.3 3.5 4.1 -0.2 46.2 47.2 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.4 2.1 -0.9 39.4 40.5 2.6 3.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.0 4.4 -0.1 46.4 47.8 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.1 0.5 -0.9 39.3 40.6 0.9 2.0 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.2 3.8 -0.5 41.4 44.1 3.8 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.9 4.4 -0.2 46.0 47.7 3.0 4.4 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.0 4.8 0.0 48.8 49.4 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.1 3.6 -0.6 41.0 43.2 4.3 5.5 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.2 2.5 -0.4 42.3 44.6 2.2 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.0 1.5 -0.6 41.2 42.8 3.5 4.3 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 3.5 3.4 -0.4 41.3 44.9 3.2 4.8 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 1.9 -0.1 48.5 48.6 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 0.6 0.8 1.5 -1.0 37.9 39.7 0.7 2.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.0 4.0 -0.3 42.6 45.5 2.2 4.1 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------