***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.0 6.8 5.3 0.2 49.4 51.5 3.0 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 5.4 5.0 -0.2 45.9 49.4 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.5 5.7 0.1 49.0 50.8 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.4 2.5 0.1 50.7 50.0 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.5 3.8 0.2 50.8 51.1 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.7 3.7 1.0 58.2 57.2 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.3 5.1 -0.1 46.5 49.7 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.0 3.3 0.2 52.1 52.3 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.3 4.6 0.2 49.9 51.2 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.2 3.9 0.1 50.3 51.5 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 3.9 0.3 52.4 52.5 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 4.0 0.5 55.0 53.9 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 3.8 0.8 56.0 56.5 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.7 5.1 0.1 48.9 51.4 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.2 3.0 0.0 48.3 48.9 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.7 3.9 0.6 54.9 54.7 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.0 -0.3 44.2 48.8 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.9 4.1 0.2 50.5 51.9 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.8 5.3 -0.1 46.6 49.7 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.8 2.2 0.3 49.5 52.4 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 5.2 0.2 50.7 51.6 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.7 5.0 -0.4 43.8 48.0 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.6 5.8 0.1 49.0 50.7 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.7 8.4 5.0 0.1 49.4 51.2 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.9 3.7 0.2 50.5 51.2 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.8 3.4 0.5 55.1 55.5 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.1 4.8 0.3 50.7 51.9 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.5 2.9 0.1 50.3 50.2 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.8 3.4 0.2 48.8 51.8 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.0 5.1 0.0 47.6 49.8 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------