***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2019.-03.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.4 1.8 3.7 -0.5 43.7 46.8 1.1 2.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.5 3.6 -0.7 42.4 45.9 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.0 4.0 -0.6 43.4 46.4 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 0.8 -0.8 42.4 44.1 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.2 1.9 -0.9 41.0 43.7 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.9 1.6 -0.3 45.4 47.7 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.6 3.7 -0.7 40.6 45.8 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 1.5 -1.0 39.6 42.6 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.5 2.6 -1.0 39.9 43.1 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.3 1.9 -1.2 38.8 42.2 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.2 2.0 -0.8 40.4 44.2 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.6 2.0 -0.7 41.5 44.6 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.1 1.8 -0.5 42.6 46.6 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.5 3.7 3.2 -1.0 41.4 43.7 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.9 1.6 -0.6 43.6 45.8 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.9 -0.5 43.0 46.0 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.2 3.6 -0.9 40.5 44.2 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.8 1.9 -1.3 38.8 41.3 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.7 3.9 -0.6 43.5 46.4 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -0.4 1.4 0.4 -1.1 37.5 41.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.6 3.3 -0.8 43.1 44.9 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.0 3.6 -0.9 41.0 43.6 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.9 4.2 -0.6 44.2 46.7 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.7 3.0 -1.1 41.0 43.2 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.1 1.9 -0.7 42.7 44.9 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.6 1.5 -0.6 42.0 44.8 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.4 3.1 -0.6 44.0 46.2 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.3 1.3 -0.7 43.1 45.1 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -0.7 0.6 1.4 -1.3 37.6 41.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 0.8 2.3 3.6 -0.6 42.6 46.4 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------