***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.8 2.8 3.5 -0.2 43.8 46.4 0.4 3.8 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.5 1.4 3.6 -0.3 43.5 46.6 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.0 2.7 3.8 -0.4 43.7 45.3 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.9 -1.4 0.5 -0.4 43.2 45.5 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 5.7 3.1 1.8 -0.6 41.7 43.7 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.4 1.6 0.4 48.2 51.9 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.1 1.4 3.5 -0.2 43.9 46.6 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.0 -2.2 1.1 -0.8 40.0 42.2 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.2 2.7 2.4 -0.9 39.7 41.5 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.5 2.2 1.6 -0.9 39.7 41.2 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.0 3.2 2.2 -0.5 43.7 45.2 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.8 3.3 1.7 -0.4 42.7 45.0 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 5.3 3.7 2.3 0.0 45.0 48.9 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 5.2 2.0 3.0 -1.1 39.3 41.4 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 51.8 51.5 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.2 4.5 2.0 0.0 46.1 48.6 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.0 1.1 3.5 -0.2 43.7 46.9 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 1.7 1.3 -1.2 38.3 39.7 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.6 1.7 3.8 -0.3 43.9 46.7 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 37.9 40.1 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 3.5 3.4 -0.5 41.7 44.4 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.4 1.3 3.7 -0.3 42.9 46.9 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.4 4.0 -0.3 45.0 47.0 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.3 2.2 3.0 -0.9 40.5 42.1 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.4 3.3 2.1 -0.4 43.1 45.1 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.1 1.3 -0.2 43.5 46.5 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.1 3.0 -0.3 43.7 45.9 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.7 1.5 0.1 47.9 48.9 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.1 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 36.8 39.2 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.3 1.7 3.5 -0.3 43.9 46.0 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------