***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.1 3.0 3.1 -0.8 45.0 41.6 2.0 3.5 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 3.5 3.9 4.4 0.2 58.8 54.9 1.5 3.2 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 4.5 3.9 3.9 -0.5 49.0 46.2 2.5 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 0.6 0.4 0.7 -0.2 50.4 49.9 -3.3 0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.1 1.3 -1.3 38.3 38.1 2.5 3.7 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.7 2.4 0.3 -1.0 38.1 39.9 2.3 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 3.3 3.4 3.8 -0.2 51.7 50.1 1.1 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 0.0 -2.4 0.7 -1.3 36.6 37.3 -3.2 -0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.3 3.4 2.3 -1.3 38.7 38.5 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.1 2.4 1.6 -1.2 39.6 39.9 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 4.3 3.4 1.9 -1.2 38.7 39.4 2.7 3.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.1 3.1 1.0 -1.4 35.6 36.3 2.6 4.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.2 2.0 1.5 -1.5 34.2 35.5 2.0 3.1 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 4.7 4.1 3.9 -0.4 47.9 47.6 2.7 4.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 4.4 5.3 3.2 0.8 59.8 60.3 1.7 4.3 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.1 3.4 1.1 -1.3 37.9 38.1 3.2 4.5 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 3.1 4.0 4.4 0.6 62.4 61.0 0.9 2.9 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 2.6 1.4 1.3 -1.3 37.4 38.8 0.9 2.1 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 3.5 4.6 4.7 0.4 61.0 56.9 1.3 3.1 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -1.7 33.6 34.0 -0.5 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 4.4 3.6 3.4 -0.9 44.8 42.7 2.7 3.9 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 3.6 5.0 5.2 1.0 66.1 65.4 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 3.2 3.8 5.1 0.8 62.5 59.9 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 5.5 3.7 3.5 -0.6 45.7 45.9 2.6 5.1 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.4 2.2 2.2 -0.8 44.6 42.1 2.1 2.8 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.0 2.3 -0.3 -2.2 30.3 29.1 2.4 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.7 2.6 -1.0 41.3 38.8 2.4 3.3 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 4.3 4.6 1.9 0.2 53.0 53.4 2.1 4.1 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 34.2 35.3 0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.1 3.8 -0.4 49.2 47.1 1.4 3.2 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------