***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-10.02.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -2.4 -2.5 0.3 48.8 52.7 -3.4 -2.4 -1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.7 -2.3 0.4 50.9 54.1 -5.2 -2.8 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -1.0 -2.5 0.1 47.5 51.0 -1.9 -0.9 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -5.6 -6.2 -5.6 0.0 48.2 49.5 -7.4 -6.1 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -2.8 -3.5 -5.1 -0.1 45.8 48.2 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -3.7 -4.5 -7.3 -0.2 47.6 48.8 -5.4 -4.3 -3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.3 0.3 50.3 52.7 -4.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -7.8 -8.3 -6.6 0.2 52.4 52.8 -8.7 -8.4 -6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.6 -5.0 -0.3 44.6 46.2 -3.3 -2.5 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.5 -6.0 0.0 51.1 51.0 -4.2 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.5 -3.3 -5.9 -0.2 46.9 48.7 -4.4 -3.1 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.7 -4.2 -6.2 0.0 50.3 51.0 -5.3 -4.2 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -3.3 -6.2 0.1 52.3 52.1 -4.3 -3.3 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -1.9 -4.6 0.0 49.2 50.0 -2.9 -1.8 -1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -2.2 -4.2 0.4 51.8 53.2 -3.8 -2.3 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -2.5 -6.3 -0.1 48.3 49.3 -3.8 -2.5 -1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -2.7 -2.2 0.4 52.4 54.1 -5.0 -2.8 -1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -4.2 -4.4 -6.3 0.1 52.1 52.1 -6.2 -4.5 -3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.4 0.4 51.7 54.3 -4.8 -2.5 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -7.4 -7.0 -7.0 0.4 58.5 56.9 -9.1 -7.8 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.9 -3.4 0.0 47.3 49.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.3 0.4 53.0 54.6 -5.2 -2.5 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7 0.4 51.6 54.3 -4.2 -2.6 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.7 -4.8 0.0 49.7 50.3 -4.0 -2.7 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -3.2 -3.7 0.2 48.4 51.4 -4.0 -3.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -3.7 -6.6 -0.1 47.7 49.4 -4.6 -3.4 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.9 -2.9 0.3 49.7 52.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -3.5 -3.9 -5.2 0.2 51.1 52.1 -4.6 -3.9 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -4.8 -5.2 -6.8 0.2 55.2 53.6 -6.2 -5.4 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.4 0.2 48.5 52.1 -4.6 -2.4 -1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------