***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 -1.8 -2.9 -3.0 -0.4 39.7 42.6 -3.5 -2.1 -1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -2.4 -1.7 -1.7 0.9 60.2 60.3 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 -0.3 -1.9 -2.8 -0.3 39.7 44.6 -2.6 -0.6 -0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -5.8 -6.6 -5.4 -0.5 40.9 43.0 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -4.1 -5.3 -1.3 36.5 36.3 -4.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -6.0 -6.4 -8.8 -2.2 28.9 30.0 -6.1 -4.3 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -2.3 -1.8 -2.0 0.7 58.0 57.0 -4.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -6.8 -8.0 -7.3 -1.0 40.8 40.8 -9.1 -7.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -5.8 -1.7 29.0 30.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -3.9 -6.5 -1.0 38.8 39.1 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -3.0 -4.4 -6.3 -1.6 34.9 34.9 -4.6 -3.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -4.1 -5.3 -7.0 -1.5 36.6 37.0 -5.6 -4.7 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -3.4 -5.3 -7.0 -1.6 35.3 36.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.7 -4.3 -0.2 44.3 46.7 -3.0 -2.4 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -2.0 -3.4 0.4 50.9 51.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.7 -7.0 -1.7 32.6 33.6 -3.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 -2.0 -1.8 -1.1 1.6 70.8 69.5 -4.3 -2.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 -4.9 -5.6 -6.3 -0.5 43.3 43.3 -6.2 -5.3 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 0.8 57.9 58.6 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -7.9 -9.2 -7.8 -1.0 41.8 42.2 -10.4 -8.4 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -0.9 36.3 38.4 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -1.8 -1.6 -0.7 1.8 72.9 73.0 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 0.7 54.9 55.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 -3.0 -3.8 -4.3 -0.2 43.6 46.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -2.9 -3.8 -0.6 40.2 41.1 -3.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 -5.1 -5.1 -7.9 -2.4 31.5 31.2 -5.1 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -0.4 42.0 43.3 -3.9 -3.0 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -3.3 -4.6 0.1 49.4 50.0 -5.1 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 -5.2 -6.1 -7.6 -0.9 42.1 42.3 -7.4 -5.5 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.6 -2.5 0.1 47.2 49.8 -4.1 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------