***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 70.0 172.9 93.3 87.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 37.9 59.0 65.6 167.9 91.5 83.9 13.9 27.0 33.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 52.5 61.8 67.3 160.5 88.7 83.7 24.4 34.0 40.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 59.6 67.5 69.0 148.7 83.1 78.4 29.7 42.2 56.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 45.4 53.7 67.6 143.0 82.0 76.5 31.6 37.3 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 40.4 45.5 64.0 137.3 78.6 73.1 24.5 30.9 36.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 35.5 49.6 65.1 170.2 92.7 84.1 16.3 25.9 32.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 69.9 75.5 71.5 140.3 80.9 74.3 37.3 60.6 69.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 33.1 36.6 68.0 141.8 81.3 76.0 21.2 27.6 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 44.3 51.1 69.3 135.8 79.6 73.1 28.5 32.5 36.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 44.8 52.0 62.3 137.5 78.7 72.8 20.2 30.6 39.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 42.9 53.6 63.3 139.0 79.2 73.0 16.2 29.5 37.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 51.6 61.2 64.6 139.2 78.6 73.7 23.2 31.9 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 66.5 71.2 73.0 143.7 80.5 78.2 34.0 51.1 60.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 56.1 69.2 65.8 151.3 82.2 77.4 16.2 26.3 42.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 37.3 40.8 62.2 139.1 78.4 73.7 19.5 29.0 35.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 37.8 51.5 62.6 163.1 91.7 80.9 14.8 27.2 37.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 41.2 44.4 76.1 136.4 78.8 74.4 23.9 33.4 41.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 44.5 61.7 66.5 165.7 90.3 84.5 19.3 31.5 38.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 49.1 60.3 100.2 152.6 84.2 80.5 23.0 29.6 40.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 41.0 51.3 68.2 152.0 85.2 80.4 24.3 30.7 39.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 41.9 64.6 65.2 161.7 90.4 81.9 15.2 30.4 34.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 41.5 59.7 67.9 159.9 88.9 84.5 15.6 31.1 37.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 50.4 52.7 70.4 141.2 80.2 76.2 33.5 44.1 46.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 45.1 57.9 75.0 159.8 88.8 84.4 24.3 33.8 40.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 39.2 47.7 67.8 148.8 83.1 76.5 16.6 26.9 37.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 43.4 57.4 73.9 168.7 92.6 87.0 20.3 28.5 37.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 47.4 58.9 64.2 144.2 79.6 75.3 18.6 25.3 37.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 68.6 74.9 84.0 140.2 79.9 76.5 40.5 54.8 62.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 40.4 60.4 66.7 169.8 92.0 85.4 19.0 26.1 32.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------