***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 142.6 72.9 65.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 11.0 12.4 132.5 69.3 60.2 0.8 3.3 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.7 12.5 131.2 70.7 61.2 1.9 6.7 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.6 10.1 12.9 126.3 67.4 61.2 3.9 6.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 9.9 12.2 12.9 123.4 63.8 60.3 3.0 9.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.0 9.9 13.4 125.1 65.6 60.4 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 7.5 8.9 12.5 137.3 72.2 61.7 1.9 4.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.6 13.1 13.0 114.5 61.7 57.7 6.0 10.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 6.4 7.9 13.2 124.3 65.3 60.0 3.3 5.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 7.8 11.6 13.4 118.8 62.9 58.5 3.2 6.4 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.6 9.4 11.9 119.7 62.8 59.2 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 5.6 6.3 11.6 115.9 62.6 58.5 1.9 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 8.6 8.7 12.9 123.9 61.6 60.4 4.4 7.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.7 13.7 114.6 60.0 56.0 6.0 8.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.4 8.4 12.2 129.7 68.3 60.1 0.5 3.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 6.2 10.0 12.2 122.4 63.8 59.9 3.7 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.8 11.7 124.6 68.2 58.2 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.4 14.3 114.2 62.0 56.9 3.3 5.9 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.1 12.9 12.4 129.5 68.0 59.4 1.4 5.4 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.8 16.6 109.7 60.4 56.4 3.2 5.3 7.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 6.5 11.1 12.9 129.7 70.0 61.5 3.3 5.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.8 12.1 121.4 64.8 57.1 2.2 6.2 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.2 11.0 12.5 125.5 68.6 58.5 0.8 5.1 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.5 10.1 13.3 117.6 64.1 57.4 4.5 5.6 11.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 6.2 11.2 14.1 134.6 71.1 63.8 3.6 4.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.7 12.8 123.1 67.0 59.9 1.8 5.7 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.8 14.0 141.3 72.1 65.4 2.4 6.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.8 9.3 12.4 126.2 67.5 59.9 0.9 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.6 15.2 111.7 62.2 56.4 5.7 9.7 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.0 10.1 12.6 136.2 70.8 61.8 1.4 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------