***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 158.8 75.8 68.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.7 15.4 144.0 76.6 67.9 1.0 2.7 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.8 17.6 16.4 147.8 74.1 67.0 1.3 2.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 15.2 16.4 18.1 159.1 75.3 67.4 6.2 7.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.8 18.8 17.3 146.4 74.2 65.3 4.5 10.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.3 15.3 16.9 141.9 72.3 64.2 3.1 7.5 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.6 8.9 15.4 149.4 76.7 68.8 1.6 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 22.7 25.9 19.0 144.1 74.3 64.4 8.7 15.5 24.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 9.7 10.7 17.3 138.6 74.5 63.5 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.7 16.5 18.3 136.7 72.3 63.0 5.5 8.2 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.2 12.2 16.2 143.3 72.6 64.2 6.2 9.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.6 12.7 16.6 145.4 72.8 64.6 1.2 5.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.8 14.5 16.6 142.9 70.0 64.1 3.3 9.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.6 15.6 18.0 131.0 69.7 62.6 3.0 4.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 10.1 13.3 18.4 170.2 78.2 67.7 0.8 4.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.5 13.6 15.9 144.4 71.2 64.5 1.4 8.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 5.2 6.4 14.5 138.6 76.5 66.4 0.9 2.9 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.4 19.5 128.3 68.9 61.0 3.6 7.9 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 7.5 9.4 15.6 141.4 75.8 67.6 0.7 1.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 14.0 24.8 138.0 72.2 63.4 3.1 6.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.6 14.2 16.9 143.7 74.6 65.0 2.9 5.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.5 6.3 15.0 134.4 73.8 65.9 0.5 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 7.6 8.2 15.9 138.5 73.5 66.4 0.8 2.0 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.8 15.2 17.6 131.4 70.6 62.1 4.6 7.3 11.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 13.6 14.6 18.4 152.3 71.3 67.6 1.3 6.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.5 17.6 153.9 73.6 65.6 3.5 9.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.3 10.0 17.8 154.9 74.0 68.6 1.3 4.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.0 12.3 17.5 159.8 76.0 66.7 0.9 5.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.9 21.2 128.8 69.6 61.2 7.4 14.9 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 7.0 8.6 15.9 150.2 77.5 68.8 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------