***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 136.9 70.4 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 9.4 11.6 16.3 145.3 73.5 67.7 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.2 13.3 15.9 129.9 69.3 62.8 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 8.6 10.3 16.5 110.7 62.7 59.4 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.7 10.9 16.1 109.6 63.9 58.8 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 5.9 7.0 15.2 102.1 61.8 56.3 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 9.5 12.2 16.3 144.0 72.4 68.8 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 12.0 14.1 16.7 107.7 66.1 59.4 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.5 9.6 16.3 112.2 64.0 58.6 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.2 11.8 16.5 107.6 64.8 58.5 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 5.8 9.4 14.8 104.4 62.9 58.1 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.7 14.5 102.4 63.3 57.6 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.5 9.3 15.3 106.1 63.4 58.4 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.8 19.5 16.9 120.0 64.1 60.1 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 5.7 9.6 15.5 108.7 65.6 59.8 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 6.1 6.5 14.7 102.6 62.5 57.5 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.9 10.7 15.8 142.6 73.0 68.0 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.9 18.1 110.2 63.6 59.4 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.5 16.3 144.5 73.7 66.7 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.6 24.0 123.4 71.5 64.5 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 7.5 10.0 16.0 119.6 63.8 59.5 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.6 12.8 16.2 145.5 74.4 67.7 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.7 16.0 137.3 71.1 64.0 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.5 15.1 16.5 114.2 61.5 59.1 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 8.4 10.1 18.1 128.0 65.2 62.7 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 5.4 7.8 15.7 112.1 65.4 61.3 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.4 10.3 17.9 136.9 69.7 65.2 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 3.9 6.2 15.4 104.9 64.2 58.2 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.8 20.9 20.0 113.5 66.9 60.9 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 10.9 12.3 16.4 144.0 73.8 67.2 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------