***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 23.6 271.9 90.6 87.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 11.8 21.9 21.5 276.0 92.3 87.6 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 17.6 22.7 22.5 248.5 90.1 85.8 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 15.6 31.2 21.5 217.1 87.5 83.5 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 13.2 21.5 21.3 207.0 87.6 81.6 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 11.3 18.6 18.5 204.2 86.1 79.1 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 9.6 16.6 21.0 277.8 92.8 87.5 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 17.7 27.4 22.7 210.7 87.6 80.6 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 9.5 14.4 21.2 204.8 87.7 81.7 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 11.4 17.1 21.0 191.9 86.6 79.1 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 9.3 16.9 19.4 196.4 86.0 77.9 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 8.1 12.8 20.5 207.6 86.5 79.7 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 9.4 15.6 19.8 198.9 88.0 78.3 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 11.1 21.6 24.3 222.2 87.7 83.6 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 9.9 16.0 19.7 218.5 87.2 83.7 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 8.1 19.8 19.5 205.7 87.9 79.7 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 7.2 18.1 20.6 277.4 93.8 87.4 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 13.2 20.1 24.2 208.5 90.8 83.2 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 15.8 22.9 22.3 269.2 91.7 87.4 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 10.3 22.1 34.8 268.0 94.3 89.2 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 14.3 18.1 22.4 228.0 88.4 84.5 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 12.1 32.1 22.0 271.5 93.5 87.6 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 14.4 23.6 23.4 251.7 90.4 86.6 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 13.3 24.1 23.0 214.7 88.8 82.8 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 13.6 23.8 24.4 238.9 89.5 85.7 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 7.4 11.4 21.6 223.5 88.8 83.7 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 12.8 18.1 24.2 258.8 91.5 86.7 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 9.9 18.4 19.0 208.5 87.0 82.2 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 24.4 33.8 27.6 226.9 91.9 86.0 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 13.7 20.2 21.8 270.9 90.8 87.3 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------