***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 47.9 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.3 3.0 -0.6 42.8 47.8 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.8 4.2 0.1 49.1 54.6 3.7 4.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.1 2.2 0.3 50.3 55.7 -1.7 0.1 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.3 3.4 0.7 57.0 60.2 3.6 5.1 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.0 6.3 2.8 1.1 70.3 64.7 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.5 2.4 2.8 -0.6 41.9 47.6 1.8 3.9 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.8 -0.9 3.0 0.7 60.3 60.7 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.6 4.2 0.7 57.0 60.8 4.2 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.6 3.5 0.6 58.3 60.2 3.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.4 3.7 1.0 61.7 62.6 3.7 5.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.7 3.6 1.0 62.8 63.2 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.5 3.4 1.1 68.1 64.8 3.4 4.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.7 3.9 0.1 51.4 54.3 4.4 5.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.6 2.3 0.1 50.7 53.5 3.3 4.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.0 3.5 1.1 64.5 63.9 3.9 5.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.3 2.7 2.5 -0.9 40.5 44.4 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.0 3.1 0.4 55.7 57.9 2.6 3.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 3.7 3.4 -0.5 44.6 49.3 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.2 56.5 55.9 0.9 2.0 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.5 4.3 0.5 53.1 58.1 3.8 5.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.5 2.9 -0.8 42.3 45.4 3.0 4.4 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.8 3.9 -0.2 48.0 51.6 2.9 4.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.5 4.0 0.3 52.4 56.7 4.3 5.5 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.8 2.6 0.0 48.1 54.1 2.2 4.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.4 3.0 1.0 64.5 64.2 3.5 4.3 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.4 3.1 -0.1 46.7 53.4 3.2 4.8 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.7 2.7 0.5 53.7 57.3 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.6 2.4 0.3 56.5 57.6 0.7 2.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.4 3.4 -0.4 43.8 50.1 2.2 4.1 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------