***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.02.2013.-10.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 5.2 0.3 55.3 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.0 4.8 0.1 51.9 53.5 3.6 5.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.1 5.6 0.5 55.1 55.5 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.5 3.8 0.7 59.9 57.0 -0.3 1.2 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.7 4.7 0.9 62.3 58.6 4.7 7.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.1 3.7 1.3 65.5 61.1 4.1 6.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.8 4.6 0.0 51.6 52.7 2.6 5.7 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.5 0.8 4.1 1.1 62.8 60.1 -2.5 -1.5 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.8 9.6 5.4 0.9 60.6 58.0 5.6 8.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 9.8 9.2 4.7 1.0 61.0 59.1 5.2 8.2 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.5 4.8 1.2 64.4 60.3 4.8 8.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 9.5 9.0 4.7 1.2 66.2 61.0 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 9.9 9.4 4.2 1.3 67.0 61.1 4.7 7.8 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.9 9.7 5.5 0.8 57.2 57.8 5.6 8.3 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.4 3.7 0.4 55.6 54.9 4.7 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.1 9.3 4.4 1.2 65.5 60.6 4.9 8.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.9 4.5 0.0 51.8 53.0 3.6 5.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 8.8 7.5 4.3 0.9 58.9 58.8 4.4 6.9 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.9 5.2 0.3 52.8 54.4 3.7 6.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.2 2.3 0.8 58.5 58.6 1.8 3.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.7 5.5 0.7 59.2 56.6 4.9 7.9 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.6 5.0 0.3 53.1 54.6 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.0 5.7 0.5 54.3 55.9 4.6 6.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 9.0 5.4 0.8 57.5 57.8 5.6 8.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.0 3.9 0.4 56.8 55.0 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.8 8.4 3.9 1.2 65.6 61.0 4.6 6.3 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.4 4.4 0.2 55.5 54.1 3.8 7.0 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.5 4.1 0.8 59.5 57.3 5.0 8.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.1 3.5 0.9 57.6 58.9 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.3 5.0 0.2 51.7 53.7 3.5 6.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------