***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.01.2013.-03.02.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 4.2 0.4 52.8 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.1 2.6 3.5 -0.1 47.8 50.9 1.4 2.6 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.4 4.5 0.3 52.8 53.2 2.6 4.1 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.3 2.7 0.6 55.2 54.8 -3.6 -0.9 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.7 3.6 0.8 55.4 55.8 2.0 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.1 2.8 1.3 59.7 59.5 2.2 3.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.9 2.5 3.3 -0.1 48.1 50.9 1.1 2.6 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.4 3.1 0.8 56.2 56.5 -3.2 -2.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.2 4.3 0.7 55.2 55.6 3.1 4.5 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.5 3.6 0.7 55.0 55.6 3.1 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.3 3.7 0.9 57.7 57.2 2.4 4.2 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.4 3.6 1.0 59.4 58.0 3.1 4.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.0 6.3 3.3 1.2 59.8 59.3 2.5 4.2 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.2 4.2 0.4 51.0 53.2 3.1 5.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.6 2.6 0.5 54.4 53.7 2.6 4.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.8 3.4 1.1 59.2 58.1 2.3 4.2 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.1 3.1 -0.4 47.0 48.9 1.2 3.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.4 3.3 0.5 51.7 54.4 2.5 3.4 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.9 3.9 0.0 48.9 51.3 1.9 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.4 49.7 54.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.6 4.5 0.6 54.6 54.8 2.6 4.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.4 3.5 -0.3 46.6 49.4 1.8 4.0 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.0 4.4 0.1 50.3 52.0 2.1 3.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.3 5.7 4.2 0.5 52.0 53.9 2.9 5.5 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.3 3.0 0.5 52.5 54.0 1.7 2.9 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.7 6.0 3.1 1.3 60.4 59.9 2.9 3.9 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 2.8 3.5 0.4 51.5 53.5 1.5 2.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.3 3.0 0.7 56.4 55.2 2.4 4.8 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.5 2.5 0.5 49.7 54.3 0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.5 3.8 0.0 48.9 51.9 1.4 2.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------