***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.6 0.5 55.6 57.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 0.5 2.4 2.6 -0.4 48.5 52.3 0.2 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.5 4.0 0.6 55.3 57.8 0.9 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -3.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 56.2 59.2 -2.9 -0.3 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.1 3.2 1.3 62.2 61.4 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 5.7 5.7 2.6 1.7 62.4 63.8 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.0 1.6 2.4 -0.4 46.8 52.4 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.7 2.9 1.4 61.0 62.0 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.9 4.0 1.4 63.2 61.7 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.1 3.4 1.4 61.7 61.8 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.6 6.4 3.4 1.5 63.4 62.6 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.9 3.4 1.6 62.8 63.1 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.8 5.7 3.1 1.6 62.0 63.5 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.9 3.8 0.7 53.7 57.9 1.1 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.9 1.9 0.6 51.8 56.8 1.0 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.0 3.2 1.6 62.8 63.4 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 0.2 1.1 2.0 -0.7 43.9 49.8 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.6 3.1 1.2 58.7 60.9 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.5 2.3 3.0 -0.2 50.4 53.1 -0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.8 1.3 1.0 56.5 59.5 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.1 4.1 1.1 60.9 60.7 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.8 1.7 2.4 -0.6 46.9 50.3 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 0.8 3.1 3.6 0.2 52.9 54.7 0.6 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.8 4.0 1.0 56.1 59.9 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.3 4.2 2.3 0.5 54.4 57.8 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.1 2.8 1.4 61.0 62.8 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.7 2.8 0.4 53.6 56.9 0.9 4.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.2 2.6 1.1 56.6 60.2 2.1 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.3 2.4 1.1 57.2 60.5 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.2 2.4 3.0 -0.1 52.1 54.1 -0.1 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------