***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.3 -1.1 38.3 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 0.7 0.7 1.1 -2.2 25.4 31.8 1.5 3.2 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.2 2.7 -1.0 41.5 42.5 2.5 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -2.5 -1.9 0.2 -1.2 38.5 39.8 -3.3 0.4 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 4.1 4.0 2.2 -0.2 55.0 50.5 2.5 3.7 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 4.6 4.4 2.0 0.3 50.9 52.1 2.3 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.1 -2.1 25.7 32.1 1.1 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.1 -0.8 1.8 -0.6 46.3 45.4 -3.2 -0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.3 3.3 0.0 56.5 52.1 2.9 4.7 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.3 2.3 -0.5 48.7 46.9 2.1 3.4 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 4.3 3.9 2.9 0.2 56.4 53.7 2.7 3.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.4 2.6 0.1 51.3 51.0 2.6 4.3 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 3.8 3.2 2.9 0.4 51.1 53.6 2.0 3.1 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.4 2.8 2.0 -1.6 36.8 38.5 2.7 4.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 2.0 1.1 -1.1 42.1 41.1 1.7 4.3 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.0 4.6 2.8 0.5 56.4 55.2 3.2 4.5 5.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 0.7 0.1 0.3 -2.7 19.8 26.7 0.9 2.9 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.8 1.6 1.6 -1.2 40.6 41.0 0.9 2.1 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 1.0 1.1 1.5 -2.0 27.8 33.7 1.3 3.1 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.0 -0.3 0.1 -1.4 35.5 37.1 -0.5 1.0 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.1 3.0 -0.5 51.3 47.4 2.7 3.9 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 0.9 0.6 0.5 -2.7 20.3 26.7 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.9 -1.7 32.3 36.5 1.8 2.8 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.5 2.4 -1.2 42.4 42.1 2.6 5.1 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.9 2.2 1.3 -1.2 41.6 40.2 2.1 2.8 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 3.9 3.3 2.3 0.2 48.4 51.4 2.4 3.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.3 2.6 1.8 -1.2 37.9 39.8 2.4 3.3 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.7 1.1 -0.8 43.2 43.6 2.1 4.1 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 1.2 1.1 -1.2 39.3 40.3 0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.1 1.3 1.7 -1.7 31.5 35.7 1.4 3.2 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------