***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.01.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.7 0.8 59.2 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -3.5 -3.2 -0.6 41.6 44.1 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.5 -1.9 0.8 59.9 56.5 -2.6 -0.6 -0.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -5.9 -6.3 -4.8 0.2 52.4 51.8 -7.3 -6.4 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -2.6 -1.8 -2.7 1.5 63.4 62.4 -4.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 -3.0 -2.4 -3.9 2.2 67.2 67.7 -6.1 -4.3 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -2.8 -3.1 -0.5 47.1 46.0 -4.4 -2.5 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 -6.8 -6.3 -3.4 2.2 64.0 65.8 -9.1 -7.0 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 1.9 66.6 64.7 -3.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 -2.8 -1.9 -2.9 2.0 64.6 64.4 -4.2 -3.2 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 -3.3 -1.5 -2.4 2.1 66.3 67.1 -4.6 -3.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 -2.8 -3.0 -2.5 2.5 68.1 69.1 -5.6 -4.7 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 47 53 100 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 2.5 68.5 70.0 -5.4 -3.9 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.6 -3.5 0.3 45.6 49.3 -3.0 -2.4 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 -1.8 -1.9 -3.6 0.7 55.4 54.5 -3.7 -2.0 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 47 53 100 -1.7 -0.9 -2.5 2.4 70.0 69.2 -3.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -5.1 -4.3 -4.1 -1.5 32.5 35.7 -4.3 -2.6 -1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 -4.8 -4.1 -3.8 1.8 61.6 61.0 -6.2 -5.3 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 42.1 45.7 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -7.9 -6.4 -4.6 2.3 66.3 65.7 -10.4 -8.4 -6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.6 1.3 61.6 59.1 -3.7 -2.6 -1.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -5.5 -4.5 -3.9 -1.5 30.3 35.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -3.1 -2.9 0.0 43.1 47.7 -4.3 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 1.0 55.3 56.0 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -1.3 -2.9 0.6 58.6 55.2 -3.4 -2.3 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 2.4 67.0 69.4 -5.1 -3.2 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -1.6 -2.2 0.8 60.7 57.4 -3.9 -3.0 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 -3.0 -3.0 -3.9 0.8 57.9 56.5 -5.1 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 -5.2 -4.6 -4.2 2.1 63.3 63.2 -7.4 -5.5 -4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 0.0 50.7 49.8 -4.1 -2.3 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------