***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 14.5 16.7 29.1 68.5 32.0 32.9 17.0 24.7 33.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.1 25.9 67.2 31.3 32.9 13.8 24.0 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 21.8 23.3 29.7 69.4 32.6 33.2 23.5 33.2 40.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 26.2 32.5 36.9 75.2 36.6 35.8 29.7 39.5 56.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 23.5 32.3 37.6 78.0 36.6 36.0 31.6 36.8 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 20.2 28.0 35.9 78.1 34.0 34.1 27.0 31.1 36.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 13.8 13.3 25.0 66.3 30.8 32.5 14.1 24.9 33.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 33.2 36.9 41.8 79.6 33.6 34.9 36.7 57.8 67.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 17.4 22.1 37.6 77.2 32.4 35.5 22.2 27.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 19.5 27.8 41.3 79.9 33.1 35.5 27.7 31.6 36.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 19.5 20.4 38.1 79.9 35.8 35.6 19.8 30.5 38.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 16.1 18.5 37.3 78.5 32.3 34.4 18.7 30.8 37.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 21.3 24.0 38.4 78.4 34.4 33.6 23.1 33.5 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 26.7 31.0 37.4 69.5 28.8 30.4 35.0 45.4 57.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 15.6 20.6 34.3 73.3 38.0 36.1 16.3 23.6 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 20.2 19.8 37.3 79.9 34.9 35.1 18.3 30.5 36.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 13.2 12.0 24.2 64.8 28.8 31.6 13.5 26.0 35.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 19.7 21.7 42.3 78.2 30.4 34.4 22.3 31.3 38.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 17.7 17.1 27.0 67.7 32.0 33.0 19.1 32.1 38.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 16.9 21.1 51.4 77.5 30.8 33.8 22.8 30.6 40.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 20.4 22.3 33.5 72.5 33.0 33.7 22.3 31.0 37.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 16.3 12.3 25.8 65.2 29.2 31.5 13.4 28.7 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 17.5 14.4 29.1 68.1 30.7 32.5 14.4 29.0 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 26.5 29.8 36.9 73.4 29.6 32.8 32.9 43.2 46.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 22.0 24.4 34.0 70.3 33.5 33.0 24.3 33.8 40.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 13.9 16.4 35.9 74.3 29.9 32.7 18.1 26.7 34.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 16.8 20.1 30.7 68.9 31.5 32.5 20.3 28.5 35.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 16.0 20.0 36.1 77.6 37.2 36.6 19.0 25.4 37.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 32.1 34.8 44.9 77.5 30.4 34.0 37.1 53.8 62.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 13.7 17.3 26.7 67.6 31.9 33.2 18.2 23.8 33.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------