***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.6 6.3 9.9 95.1 59.0 46.7 0.5 4.0 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.2 97.1 59.0 45.4 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.9 7.4 10.4 99.1 61.0 47.8 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.5 12.2 104.0 63.1 49.0 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.6 12.4 11.6 98.8 59.4 48.5 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.0 11.9 108.3 62.9 51.0 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.5 8.8 97.0 60.1 45.1 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.9 12.6 98.4 57.1 48.2 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.0 6.5 11.8 97.1 57.5 48.0 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.0 9.1 12.7 98.4 57.2 48.1 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.6 9.3 11.3 99.9 58.3 48.3 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.8 5.9 11.0 97.5 57.7 47.7 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.2 8.7 11.4 99.1 56.4 47.9 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.4 12.6 92.2 56.8 45.1 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.7 8.3 12.5 110.6 67.6 50.0 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.1 9.1 11.3 102.6 58.0 48.5 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.7 8.6 91.7 58.2 44.1 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.9 6.1 13.3 97.0 56.9 47.4 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 7.2 9.7 98.1 59.9 46.2 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.2 16.3 94.7 55.7 46.9 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.8 5.6 10.9 95.7 58.5 47.2 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.6 9.1 90.5 56.8 44.4 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.6 7.0 10.5 97.4 61.5 46.3 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.7 12.3 96.9 58.0 46.8 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.3 11.2 95.6 57.3 46.7 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.2 11.1 94.9 57.2 47.6 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 7.6 10.2 94.8 57.1 46.2 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.4 7.8 12.4 110.9 66.0 50.3 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.0 14.3 95.7 56.4 47.2 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.9 5.8 9.5 97.9 59.7 46.2 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------