***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.6 6.8 69.7 46.6 40.2 0.8 4.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.6 4.0 5.9 68.7 47.5 38.6 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.8 6.8 69.0 47.7 39.9 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.8 11.9 8.9 82.8 56.1 42.9 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.7 10.4 9.1 83.5 52.7 43.3 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.8 9.6 92.8 57.4 46.2 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.8 5.8 68.3 47.7 38.8 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.5 16.7 10.5 89.4 56.0 44.0 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.7 9.1 79.4 48.5 42.7 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.0 10.0 83.7 51.5 43.3 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.1 9.6 90.4 55.3 43.8 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.0 9.9 94.1 59.0 45.2 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.3 10.3 95.8 59.1 47.5 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.0 8.7 68.5 45.1 39.3 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.0 8.8 82.3 59.0 41.4 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.7 9.8 95.0 57.7 45.7 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.4 1.8 5.4 64.6 46.8 37.5 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.2 9.8 78.6 49.0 42.8 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.3 6.2 69.0 48.0 38.7 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.1 12.6 84.1 52.6 43.4 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.1 7.9 74.1 48.3 41.6 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.4 3.2 5.9 65.7 46.6 37.3 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.2 6.7 69.1 48.6 39.2 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 8.3 8.5 72.0 47.0 40.7 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.5 8.1 73.8 46.2 41.4 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.7 10.1 94.7 60.5 46.8 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 4.5 7.4 71.3 45.3 40.4 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.0 87.2 57.8 42.9 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.0 15.2 10.5 79.2 50.7 42.9 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.4 3.1 6.2 69.2 48.1 38.9 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------