***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.8 10.2 78.8 48.8 43.9 2.4 4.8 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 3.8 9.1 80.2 49.9 43.7 1.8 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.3 10.3 80.4 52.2 45.1 3.7 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.7 13.9 100.7 60.1 50.5 2.9 6.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.2 14.6 107.1 61.0 51.9 2.2 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.9 12.9 97.6 55.3 48.6 2.1 4.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.9 8.9 80.7 50.9 43.7 1.3 3.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.1 16.0 111.8 63.0 52.6 4.4 8.4 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.2 14.3 103.8 60.8 51.3 2.7 4.3 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.4 15.9 113.3 63.4 53.7 3.1 6.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.0 14.9 109.1 60.4 51.9 1.6 3.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.9 14.2 106.5 61.0 51.1 2.2 4.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.3 14.4 103.4 56.5 50.9 2.9 5.5 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.3 12.9 13.3 87.2 53.6 48.0 8.4 12.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.5 11.5 86.3 57.7 46.1 0.5 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.2 14.2 106.9 57.9 51.5 1.4 2.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.2 8.9 83.1 52.3 44.7 1.3 4.1 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.8 16.1 110.4 60.5 53.0 5.6 6.6 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.0 9.3 79.3 49.9 44.0 2.8 5.1 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 8.2 19.2 108.0 60.8 51.0 4.1 5.9 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.9 12.5 92.0 56.0 48.5 3.6 5.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.7 9.3 82.3 52.9 44.5 2.8 6.3 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.0 9.8 78.4 50.2 44.7 4.0 6.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 13.5 94.1 55.8 49.4 6.3 10.7 17.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.0 12.5 85.2 53.6 45.9 3.3 4.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.8 12.8 91.6 53.2 46.3 0.9 3.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.2 11.1 80.9 49.4 44.2 2.7 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.1 13.0 100.1 60.3 49.6 0.4 2.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 15.1 16.9 108.9 61.1 52.4 9.1 12.4 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.4 3.6 9.2 78.4 48.3 42.9 2.2 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------