***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 0.2 0.0 2.2 23.7 24.9 19.5 0.0 1.4 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.6 18.1 22.6 18.2 0.3 2.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.1 22.2 22.4 18.3 0.4 2.5 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.9 14.7 15.1 14.5 2.5 4.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 0.4 0.1 2.3 19.1 17.5 15.7 1.3 3.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.6 13.6 13.4 11.7 0.6 2.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.5 16.1 22.1 17.5 0.2 1.7 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.5 2.6 19.3 16.5 14.5 3.3 7.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.3 20.5 18.8 16.3 0.8 3.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 0.5 0.2 2.8 21.6 17.7 15.8 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 0.5 0.2 2.3 19.3 17.4 15.3 1.0 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 0.6 0.1 2.1 17.1 16.2 13.9 0.8 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.1 2.3 18.2 14.2 13.5 1.0 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.9 23.5 20.9 17.3 2.7 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.0 1.5 13.2 20.0 16.7 0.6 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 0.3 0.1 2.0 16.3 16.0 13.9 1.2 2.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.3 14.8 21.0 17.3 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 0.3 0.2 3.1 23.1 18.0 15.9 2.4 3.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 0.4 0.1 1.8 19.7 22.5 18.4 0.6 3.0 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 0.9 0.3 3.3 20.8 16.7 14.8 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 0.5 0.1 2.2 20.9 21.4 17.2 0.7 4.6 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 0.3 0.0 1.7 17.8 22.5 17.9 0.0 2.2 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.1 21.2 21.7 18.1 0.2 2.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 0.5 0.2 2.7 23.2 20.1 16.9 1.3 4.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 0.2 0.1 2.2 20.4 21.5 17.2 0.3 1.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 0.4 0.2 1.8 15.3 14.1 12.4 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 0.2 0.0 2.1 21.2 22.4 18.2 0.1 2.1 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.3 1.7 14.0 17.1 15.1 1.4 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 1.1 0.6 3.2 22.8 17.5 15.7 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.8 19.7 24.1 18.4 0.3 1.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------