***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.4 5.6 5.3 1.4 67.0 66.1 2.7 4.7 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.6 5.2 5.4 1.4 63.3 64.9 2.2 4.0 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.7 5.7 1.3 63.7 63.9 3.4 5.0 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 1.5 1.6 2.9 1.6 69.3 67.8 -1.9 0.0 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.6 4.0 1.4 67.3 65.8 3.2 5.0 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.2 3.2 1.6 72.3 68.1 3.0 4.4 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.4 5.0 5.3 1.4 64.6 65.3 1.5 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.3 66.8 64.9 -1.8 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.7 7.0 4.8 1.3 64.5 64.2 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.8 3.9 1.1 62.2 62.1 3.5 4.8 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.1 4.3 1.4 67.3 65.4 3.4 4.8 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.0 6.9 4.0 1.4 69.4 66.7 3.8 4.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.3 3.8 1.4 70.0 66.2 3.1 4.7 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.4 5.1 1.1 60.3 61.3 4.2 5.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.9 4.1 1.8 69.6 68.4 3.3 4.2 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.4 8.2 3.8 1.5 69.9 67.3 3.7 5.1 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 5.2 4.9 5.3 1.4 65.6 65.0 2.2 3.7 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 5.1 4.3 3.7 1.1 63.2 62.2 2.5 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 5.9 5.3 5.6 1.4 62.5 64.0 2.5 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.2 3.2 2.3 1.3 69.2 65.9 0.9 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.0 6.2 5.3 1.2 64.1 63.2 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 5.8 6.2 5.4 1.3 62.7 63.1 2.7 4.3 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.6 5.6 5.7 1.2 62.2 62.7 2.8 4.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.4 4.9 1.0 61.9 61.2 4.1 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.2 4.2 1.4 66.1 66.0 2.0 3.8 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.3 6.9 3.4 1.4 72.7 67.6 3.2 4.3 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.5 5.6 4.9 1.3 65.3 65.2 3.0 4.7 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.5 3.5 1.7 69.3 67.6 4.0 5.0 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.1 2.8 3.1 1.0 64.1 62.3 0.6 2.2 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 5.7 4.8 5.4 1.4 63.4 65.4 1.9 4.0 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------