***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.4 5.5 0.6 54.3 54.7 2.5 5.4 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.4 5.5 0.7 53.9 55.2 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.3 5.8 0.6 53.2 54.1 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.7 2.8 3.0 0.9 58.9 56.1 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.7 4.0 0.6 58.0 54.8 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.2 3.0 0.6 55.1 54.1 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.5 5.5 0.7 53.8 54.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.6 3.3 0.4 54.3 53.0 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.5 4.7 0.5 55.7 53.8 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.1 3.9 0.4 54.1 53.1 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.0 4.0 0.6 56.5 54.4 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.3 3.9 0.5 54.0 53.6 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 3.4 0.6 54.7 54.8 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.3 8.2 5.0 0.4 53.2 52.7 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.7 3.8 1.0 59.2 56.3 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.1 3.7 0.7 56.8 55.1 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.1 5.6 0.7 53.9 55.2 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.4 3.9 0.3 52.9 52.4 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.8 5.7 0.7 53.2 54.7 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.3 3.3 1.9 0.3 52.9 52.1 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.9 7.7 5.2 0.5 54.6 53.6 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.3 5.6 0.7 52.2 54.9 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.9 5.9 0.5 51.9 53.8 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.3 4.9 0.4 52.3 52.8 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.1 4.0 0.7 56.4 55.1 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.1 3.3 0.6 54.6 54.4 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.2 5.0 0.6 55.0 54.7 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.6 3.3 0.9 58.5 55.8 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 1.0 3.9 3.2 0.2 51.2 51.9 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.4 5.5 0.7 53.8 55.1 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------