***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2020.-02.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.8 5.0 1.0 59.3 59.1 0.4 2.5 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.7 5.2 5.3 1.4 60.5 61.2 1.0 2.7 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 4.4 5.1 5.5 1.1 57.3 59.0 1.9 3.2 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.2 2.3 0.9 60.0 57.3 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 3.4 0.7 57.5 56.6 2.1 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.3 1.9 0.2 51.5 53.0 1.7 3.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 2.8 5.3 5.2 1.3 60.8 61.1 0.8 1.5 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.9 2.5 0.1 50.8 53.2 -3.4 -1.9 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.3 4.1 0.6 56.3 55.9 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.1 3.1 0.2 52.3 53.4 2.6 3.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.6 3.3 0.6 54.6 55.7 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.6 3.1 0.3 52.2 54.7 2.4 4.4 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.5 2.4 0.3 50.9 54.6 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.4 4.7 0.7 55.6 56.3 2.5 4.4 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.7 3.2 1.0 60.8 58.2 2.6 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.1 2.8 0.5 53.5 55.7 2.6 4.5 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.3 5.0 5.4 1.4 61.0 61.2 1.3 2.3 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.0 3.0 0.1 51.0 52.7 2.4 2.9 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.5 5.5 1.3 59.3 60.5 0.9 3.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.3 1.4 1.0 -0.1 48.5 51.8 0.4 1.4 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.9 4.7 0.8 55.4 56.9 2.4 4.1 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.8 5.4 1.3 57.6 60.3 1.5 3.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.2 5.7 1.1 58.1 58.8 1.2 3.3 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.5 4.3 0.5 54.0 55.4 2.7 4.4 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.9 3.9 3.4 0.8 57.5 57.8 1.3 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.8 2.5 0.4 51.9 55.5 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 3.8 5.6 4.3 0.9 57.9 58.4 1.0 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.7 2.6 0.8 59.1 56.9 3.0 4.6 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.4 2.2 -0.1 49.2 51.9 -0.9 1.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.9 5.2 1.3 59.5 61.0 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------