***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 6.3 6.1 5.6 1.8 76.0 73.7 2.0 2.8 4.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.0 4.8 5.2 1.3 70.6 67.9 1.7 2.4 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.4 5.8 1.5 73.5 69.4 2.4 3.2 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 2.8 4.6 3.5 2.6 81.8 77.7 -3.1 0.7 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 6.5 7.2 5.0 2.4 78.2 75.4 2.6 3.2 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 6.1 6.9 5.2 3.8 85.6 83.7 2.6 3.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 5.0 4.2 5.1 1.4 71.5 69.2 1.6 2.4 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 2.4 3.2 5.2 3.1 79.6 78.1 -2.6 -0.4 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 8.2 8.2 5.7 2.1 75.8 73.2 3.0 3.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 6.7 6.8 5.1 2.3 74.3 72.5 2.3 2.8 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 6.9 7.4 5.6 2.4 77.5 74.9 2.5 3.3 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 7.8 8.7 5.5 3.1 80.2 78.9 2.7 4.4 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 6.0 6.5 5.9 2.9 78.9 76.7 2.3 3.2 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 6.3 6.0 5.6 1.4 66.3 64.9 2.3 3.1 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 6.1 6.8 4.9 2.4 79.9 77.0 1.5 4.6 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 7.0 8.0 5.3 2.9 80.4 78.0 3.0 4.1 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.6 5.0 1.2 70.1 67.2 1.2 2.6 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 4.4 5.0 5.0 2.6 76.5 73.6 1.0 1.5 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 5.0 4.8 5.3 1.2 68.7 66.1 1.7 2.4 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 4.8 5.6 4.7 3.7 82.1 80.5 -0.6 0.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 6.6 6.5 5.9 1.7 74.0 70.6 2.7 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 2.9 4.3 5.0 0.9 64.2 61.9 1.4 2.4 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 2.8 3.4 5.2 1.0 63.9 63.3 1.6 2.4 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.1 5.6 1.6 68.8 66.7 2.4 4.1 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 5.6 6.2 5.2 2.1 77.2 74.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 6.6 8.0 4.9 3.0 82.0 80.0 2.3 3.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 6.7 6.1 5.3 1.7 74.3 72.5 2.3 3.3 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 6.7 7.4 4.4 2.6 80.1 76.4 2.2 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 4.5 5.0 4.7 2.8 77.2 75.3 0.1 1.2 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.1 4.7 5.4 1.4 71.9 69.5 1.9 2.2 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------