***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-09.02.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 0.8 58.9 59.7 -3.5 -2.3 -1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.6 -2.0 0.8 57.8 59.1 -5.3 -2.6 -1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.7 -1.8 0.9 60.4 61.5 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 -4.7 -4.6 -4.1 1.5 71.6 68.7 -7.6 -5.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -1.6 -2.1 -3.7 1.2 66.1 65.1 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 -2.5 -2.2 -5.3 1.8 75.3 71.6 -5.4 -4.4 -3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -2.1 -2.2 -2.0 0.7 56.0 57.5 -4.6 -2.5 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -6.7 -7.0 -5.8 0.9 63.1 60.8 -8.9 -8.0 -6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -1.7 -3.4 1.1 65.5 64.6 -3.3 -2.5 -1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -2.1 -5.3 0.7 59.5 59.1 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 -1.5 -2.1 -4.2 1.3 67.9 65.9 -4.4 -3.4 -2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 -2.6 -2.5 -4.8 1.3 68.1 65.6 -5.4 -4.3 -2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 -2.1 -2.6 -5.1 1.1 64.4 63.6 -4.2 -3.5 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -1.5 -1.3 -3.7 1.0 59.3 61.9 -3.1 -1.8 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.8 1.5 72.4 69.4 -3.9 -2.1 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 -0.8 -0.8 -4.6 1.5 70.4 68.3 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.6 -1.9 0.8 58.3 59.3 -4.8 -2.8 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -4.3 -4.4 -6.2 0.3 51.3 53.7 -6.1 -4.6 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 0.8 59.0 60.3 -4.7 -2.5 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -7.6 -8.0 -7.3 0.1 50.6 51.1 -8.9 -8.0 -6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.8 -2.5 0.9 62.0 62.0 -4.2 -2.7 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.4 -2.0 0.8 58.5 59.6 -5.2 -2.6 -1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.1 0.9 60.7 62.1 -4.2 -2.5 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.3 -4.2 0.6 55.8 58.3 -4.0 -2.6 -2.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -2.3 -2.9 0.9 61.4 61.3 -4.3 -3.1 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 -2.2 -2.5 -5.2 1.0 66.9 62.9 -4.7 -3.4 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.7 -2.5 0.6 57.2 57.4 -4.5 -2.9 -1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.9 1.6 72.6 69.1 -4.8 -4.0 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -4.9 -5.7 -7.2 -0.3 44.1 46.5 -6.2 -5.6 -4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -2.1 -2.0 -1.9 0.8 58.3 59.6 -4.4 -2.5 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------