***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 -2.3 -2.6 -2.4 0.2 50.7 50.8 -3.6 -2.6 -1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 -2.8 -3.0 -2.5 0.1 48.8 49.6 -3.8 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 -1.2 -1.2 -2.1 0.3 51.4 52.0 -2.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 -4.0 -3.4 -2.8 2.3 79.6 78.3 -8.0 -6.3 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -2.7 -1.8 -2.8 1.2 65.9 64.6 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 -1.9 -1.9 -3.5 3.0 79.3 78.5 -5.9 -4.2 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -2.5 -2.9 -2.8 -0.1 47.0 47.9 -3.7 -2.8 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -7.2 -6.7 -4.8 1.3 61.8 61.2 -9.5 -7.4 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 -2.2 -1.7 -2.9 1.0 61.9 59.9 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 -2.9 -2.7 -4.7 0.5 56.8 56.0 -4.5 -3.0 -2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 -3.2 -2.6 -3.1 1.4 64.6 64.0 -4.6 -3.5 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 48 52 100 -3.2 -3.0 -3.3 1.9 67.6 67.3 -6.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 -3.8 -3.4 -4.0 1.3 62.1 62.5 -5.3 -4.0 -3.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 -2.0 -1.7 -3.4 0.8 57.7 56.8 -3.3 -2.1 -1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -0.9 -1.8 1.7 73.7 72.9 -3.5 -3.0 -1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 -1.3 -1.0 -3.1 2.1 72.2 71.3 -4.0 -3.1 -2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 -2.9 -3.0 -2.5 0.2 50.3 50.9 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 -4.8 -5.0 -5.8 0.0 49.5 49.0 -6.5 -5.0 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 0.2 50.1 50.8 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 -7.9 -8.1 -6.0 0.7 56.8 55.0 -11.1 -8.3 -6.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 -2.8 -2.6 -2.4 0.5 53.6 53.0 -3.5 -2.9 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 0.0 49.3 48.8 -4.1 -3.3 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 97 3 100 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 0.4 52.2 53.1 -4.1 -2.7 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.2 -0.1 45.5 45.6 -4.3 -3.5 -2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 -2.1 -1.6 -2.5 0.5 58.1 56.6 -3.2 -2.2 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 -3.1 -3.0 -4.0 1.3 63.5 63.0 -5.4 -3.3 -2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 -2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -0.2 48.5 47.5 -3.5 -2.8 -1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -2.5 -2.0 -2.7 2.1 74.9 74.4 -5.4 -4.7 -2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -5.4 -7.1 -8.0 -1.2 39.4 39.6 -7.3 -6.1 -5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 -2.5 -2.7 -2.4 0.2 50.5 50.3 -3.8 -2.7 -2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------