***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 46.5 126.6 72.4 64.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 32.9 37.8 45.3 131.4 72.9 65.7 13.8 24.0 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 45.3 49.5 47.0 124.3 71.3 64.2 23.5 33.2 40.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 53.3 57.8 54.1 129.9 69.4 65.6 29.7 39.5 56.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 39.0 42.8 50.6 119.8 63.8 61.3 31.6 36.8 43.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 33.1 35.3 49.7 116.0 63.0 61.0 27.0 31.1 36.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 31.6 35.7 45.0 132.1 72.4 65.8 14.1 24.9 33.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 60.0 65.9 53.1 115.6 60.6 60.5 36.7 57.8 67.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 28.6 31.0 49.8 114.7 62.8 59.1 22.2 27.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 34.5 33.9 52.1 112.2 59.7 58.3 27.7 31.6 36.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 33.6 35.7 47.4 117.9 62.3 61.0 19.8 30.5 38.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 32.4 35.7 47.0 115.8 60.0 60.2 18.7 30.8 37.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 36.6 36.1 48.5 115.1 59.6 59.9 23.1 33.5 38.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 49.5 55.6 53.4 114.4 61.8 59.7 35.0 45.4 57.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 45.2 52.7 55.8 136.6 74.7 68.8 16.3 23.6 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 32.5 35.4 47.2 119.2 63.7 62.0 18.3 30.5 36.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 34.4 39.0 44.3 132.3 74.4 65.7 13.5 26.0 35.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 33.4 34.0 56.6 110.1 56.7 57.3 22.3 31.3 38.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 39.5 42.1 45.6 128.7 70.9 65.1 19.1 32.1 38.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 33.9 36.7 72.4 120.3 64.9 63.0 22.8 30.6 40.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 38.1 38.3 48.6 120.8 67.4 62.0 22.3 31.0 37.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 31.0 40.6 46.2 130.0 75.2 65.1 13.4 28.7 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 31.3 37.2 46.9 123.3 68.7 63.6 14.4 29.0 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 44.9 45.9 51.9 113.7 61.7 59.1 32.9 43.2 46.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 36.7 44.4 52.9 125.9 69.0 64.6 24.3 33.8 40.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 29.3 31.0 50.4 118.7 59.2 61.1 18.1 26.7 34.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 38.1 41.7 49.9 125.8 71.1 64.6 20.3 28.5 35.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 37.9 37.9 52.7 129.5 69.7 66.0 19.0 25.4 37.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 56.7 58.4 61.8 111.6 57.8 58.4 37.1 53.8 62.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 34.9 37.1 45.5 129.6 73.4 65.5 18.2 23.8 33.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------