***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 93.2 56.7 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 8.2 111.5 62.8 51.1 1.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.6 7.7 94.4 56.9 47.0 1.0 4.8 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.7 8.6 90.9 56.8 48.7 4.7 6.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.1 8.0 82.7 51.7 45.2 4.0 7.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 8.4 77.1 51.7 45.4 3.7 7.6 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 8.1 111.4 60.3 51.3 1.4 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.1 9.1 84.4 54.5 46.7 5.2 9.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.3 7.8 78.7 49.5 43.1 1.5 5.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.5 8.6 79.5 51.5 44.0 2.7 5.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.9 7.7 82.9 52.7 45.7 2.7 6.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 7.9 83.6 55.1 46.4 2.3 4.7 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.3 8.2 80.6 52.8 45.5 3.8 8.1 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.1 9.4 90.2 54.5 44.9 3.3 7.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.4 7.2 9.0 96.4 61.3 50.6 0.5 3.8 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.5 7.8 83.4 54.9 46.7 3.2 4.9 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.3 8.4 116.3 64.2 52.5 2.2 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.5 9.8 80.8 52.9 44.1 2.0 4.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.0 8.0 106.2 61.6 49.8 0.8 5.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.2 12.8 90.3 55.7 48.3 2.4 5.2 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.3 7.6 85.6 51.3 44.4 2.8 4.1 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.9 8.8 118.2 66.1 51.8 1.5 4.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.3 7.9 97.6 58.7 47.4 0.4 3.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.3 8.8 84.9 53.5 44.2 2.9 4.9 9.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.6 8.8 92.5 55.5 46.9 3.1 4.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.6 8.3 82.4 53.7 46.9 2.7 4.3 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.4 8.3 93.2 56.6 46.4 1.9 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.7 8.4 89.6 58.6 49.5 1.0 3.5 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.9 11.1 85.2 53.1 45.9 3.7 9.6 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.5 6.3 7.9 105.8 61.2 49.8 0.8 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------