***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.01.2014.-02.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 104.5 61.4 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.8 9.2 101.1 64.5 52.4 1.3 4.5 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.8 9.8 101.2 62.6 53.4 1.6 5.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.5 14.3 10.8 103.7 63.0 54.8 5.3 9.5 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.1 10.9 102.6 61.6 54.7 5.5 9.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.9 10.5 10.7 98.6 60.6 53.8 3.7 8.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.2 7.2 9.4 103.3 64.1 52.3 1.3 4.3 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.0 17.2 11.5 100.0 58.8 54.3 8.6 12.2 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.8 11.1 101.2 60.5 54.0 2.2 7.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.3 11.7 100.3 58.0 53.9 5.0 8.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 9.8 11.8 10.0 98.0 60.4 54.2 3.7 8.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 6.3 7.0 9.9 96.3 58.8 54.0 1.6 4.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 11.4 11.2 10.5 97.5 57.7 54.0 3.8 9.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.2 14.0 12.2 102.1 58.8 54.7 3.0 5.8 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.1 9.6 94.7 65.1 53.4 0.9 5.7 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.6 10.3 9.9 98.2 60.6 54.5 3.9 6.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.2 8.8 99.0 62.2 51.5 0.9 3.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.7 8.8 13.3 102.1 58.6 53.9 4.5 7.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.9 9.2 100.1 64.7 53.0 1.1 5.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 11.4 15.8 106.1 61.0 54.8 3.7 7.0 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.6 10.6 103.6 60.7 54.0 2.6 6.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.6 9.1 96.9 61.7 53.0 0.5 4.0 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.1 7.5 9.8 100.0 63.1 54.1 0.9 3.2 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.4 11.5 11.8 101.3 59.5 54.1 4.4 8.8 15.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.6 11.6 109.1 63.2 54.0 2.3 9.1 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 10.3 11.6 10.9 100.8 60.2 55.3 4.3 9.3 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.0 11.1 107.5 62.1 53.6 2.0 5.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.4 9.7 9.9 97.6 64.1 54.1 1.4 7.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.8 14.6 104.0 59.9 54.3 7.1 14.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.1 9.4 101.4 64.6 52.6 1.2 3.3 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------