***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-19.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 15.6 190.1 86.4 74.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 9.5 13.0 15.7 207.7 84.5 78.0 0.3 2.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 7.5 11.9 15.1 170.9 81.9 71.5 0.4 2.5 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 10.1 18.7 16.6 161.8 84.0 71.2 2.5 4.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 5.0 12.3 14.6 142.9 77.9 65.5 1.3 3.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.2 7.2 11.7 132.6 68.6 61.0 0.6 2.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 8.2 10.9 15.9 216.9 84.9 79.3 0.2 1.7 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 8.8 12.0 14.4 130.4 70.4 63.5 3.3 7.8 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 4.0 7.5 14.1 139.0 73.5 65.1 0.8 3.3 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 4.5 8.3 13.7 126.2 68.9 61.7 2.0 3.5 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 5.6 7.9 13.2 135.8 71.6 63.3 1.0 4.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 5.3 8.7 12.5 127.8 70.3 61.9 0.8 4.6 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.3 8.8 11.7 123.9 67.9 59.1 1.0 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.8 14.3 15.2 138.0 73.5 64.5 2.7 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 7.6 9.7 18.1 182.8 84.0 77.0 0.6 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 3.9 8.2 12.5 135.8 73.1 62.1 1.2 2.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 6.5 8.5 16.1 222.3 87.6 81.1 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 4.8 9.6 14.7 124.0 68.1 61.6 2.4 3.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 10.2 16.9 15.5 192.5 83.1 75.7 0.6 3.0 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 8.2 9.7 22.3 156.5 77.6 70.9 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 48 52 100 7.6 10.6 14.9 157.6 79.5 69.3 0.7 4.6 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 10.6 17.9 16.8 210.2 86.9 79.2 0.0 2.2 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 8.1 13.5 15.2 169.3 80.3 71.7 0.2 2.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.1 10.1 14.6 136.7 72.3 64.3 1.3 4.7 8.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 8.2 18.9 16.8 173.6 83.8 72.3 0.3 1.5 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.5 7.0 13.0 131.4 70.4 62.7 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 6.6 14.6 16.5 188.7 87.0 74.6 0.1 2.1 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.9 9.1 15.6 158.1 81.2 70.4 1.4 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 9.3 15.2 16.7 130.3 71.6 64.0 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 7.5 11.8 15.6 198.8 84.4 76.3 0.3 1.2 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------