***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 5.3 1.2 70.1 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.2 5.1 1.2 64.1 63.6 2.2 4.0 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 6.7 7.5 5.5 1.2 68.7 64.4 3.4 5.0 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.4 1.6 2.7 0.9 66.2 61.6 -1.9 0.0 1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.8 7.4 3.8 1.2 70.8 65.0 3.2 5.0 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.2 3.3 1.4 73.4 69.3 3.0 4.4 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.1 5.0 1.2 67.2 64.1 1.5 3.7 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -0.2 0.4 3.4 1.2 70.4 66.6 -1.8 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.2 4.7 1.3 71.4 65.3 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.3 4.1 1.2 71.8 65.6 3.5 4.8 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.8 3.9 1.3 73.9 67.4 3.4 4.8 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.3 3.9 1.3 72.7 68.8 3.8 4.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.3 3.9 1.5 73.3 70.7 3.1 4.7 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.7 5.1 1.1 65.6 62.8 4.2 5.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.3 2.9 0.8 64.2 60.9 3.3 4.2 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.1 8.2 3.7 1.4 74.0 68.3 3.7 5.1 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.6 4.7 1.0 62.9 62.2 2.2 3.7 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.9 3.9 1.1 70.0 64.2 2.5 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.4 5.3 1.2 62.7 63.4 2.5 4.4 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 3.1 3.1 2.2 0.9 67.9 64.1 0.9 1.9 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.7 5.1 1.3 71.6 65.1 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.9 6.1 4.9 1.0 59.7 61.3 2.7 4.3 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.6 5.4 1.1 62.4 63.2 2.8 4.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.4 8.0 5.0 1.1 69.2 63.7 4.1 5.6 7.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.5 6.1 3.8 1.1 68.9 63.6 2.0 3.8 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.9 3.5 1.4 72.5 70.3 3.2 4.3 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.5 5.9 4.6 1.1 68.8 64.3 3.0 4.7 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.4 3.0 1.0 67.8 62.5 4.0 5.0 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.2 3.1 3.3 1.1 69.4 64.6 0.6 2.2 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.2 5.2 1.2 66.6 64.3 1.9 4.0 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------