***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 1.3 62.1 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.3 5.9 1.3 60.5 61.0 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.5 6.2 1.3 61.8 60.9 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.6 2.8 3.6 1.1 59.7 60.2 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.3 4.4 1.2 61.8 60.5 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 8.2 7.9 3.5 1.4 66.6 63.0 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 5.8 1.3 60.3 61.2 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 0.8 0.4 3.8 1.2 62.7 61.1 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.2 5.2 1.3 61.3 60.7 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.2 4.5 1.2 62.4 60.9 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.5 4.3 1.3 63.1 61.2 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 9.3 8.5 4.2 1.2 62.9 61.5 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 9.4 9.0 3.8 1.3 65.7 62.2 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.5 5.8 1.3 60.4 60.3 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.1 3.7 1.0 60.2 60.3 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.9 4.0 1.3 63.5 61.6 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.1 5.7 1.3 60.8 60.7 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.4 4.4 1.3 61.7 60.7 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 6.1 1.3 60.1 60.8 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 5.5 4.5 2.4 1.1 62.3 60.1 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.4 5.6 1.3 61.9 60.6 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.0 6.0 1.2 60.7 60.3 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.8 6.3 1.3 58.8 60.7 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.0 5.6 1.3 60.3 60.7 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 8.5 7.0 4.3 1.1 63.0 60.9 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.6 9.3 3.6 1.3 68.7 63.0 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.6 5.1 1.3 63.5 61.6 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.9 3.8 1.1 60.2 60.3 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.0 3.6 1.2 61.9 60.5 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.2 6.0 1.3 60.9 61.1 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------