***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 0.7 54.9 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.0 4.2 0.6 52.8 55.1 0.7 1.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.0 4.5 0.5 55.2 54.9 0.7 3.9 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -3.8 1.5 2.2 0.7 57.4 56.4 -2.6 -1.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.7 3.0 0.8 58.2 56.6 0.9 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.4 2.7 1.3 61.5 61.1 1.9 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.5 4.1 0.6 52.9 55.7 0.3 2.0 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.3 2.7 0.8 57.3 57.7 -2.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.8 6.2 3.7 0.7 57.7 55.5 1.3 4.9 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.7 3.1 0.6 55.6 55.3 1.4 4.3 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.9 3.1 0.9 61.3 58.3 1.1 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.8 5.9 3.3 1.2 62.6 61.7 1.7 3.9 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 3.3 1.5 66.3 63.8 2.6 4.0 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.3 3.7 0.1 48.9 50.8 1.3 3.4 6.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.8 2.3 0.7 57.0 56.7 0.8 1.8 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.3 3.0 1.1 62.4 60.2 2.1 5.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.4 3.9 0.4 51.6 54.2 0.7 1.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.9 2.8 0.3 49.9 52.9 1.0 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.6 4.3 0.5 52.2 54.4 0.1 2.3 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.8 1.3 0.5 51.8 53.9 -1.2 2.6 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.4 4.1 0.6 58.5 55.6 0.8 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.3 3.9 0.2 49.5 52.5 0.7 2.3 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.2 4.3 0.4 51.5 53.1 0.4 2.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.4 3.7 0.3 50.4 52.4 1.1 4.4 5.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 3.0 0.7 56.7 56.2 1.2 3.7 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.5 3.4 1.7 69.3 67.4 3.0 4.3 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.5 3.8 0.7 55.9 56.2 0.8 4.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.1 5.1 2.4 0.8 58.1 56.9 1.5 3.4 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.3 2.1 0.4 49.4 52.7 -0.6 2.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.5 4.3 0.6 53.2 55.5 0.4 1.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------