***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.3 0.9 56.1 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.5 1.0 56.1 58.0 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 1.1 1.3 -1.6 0.8 54.2 58.4 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -3.9 -4.3 -4.4 0.8 53.0 58.9 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -2.3 -3.8 0.9 53.1 59.5 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -5.5 -3.7 -5.5 0.6 50.2 57.2 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.2 -1.4 1.0 57.8 58.0 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -6.0 -8.0 -5.1 0.7 48.6 57.3 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -0.7 -3.0 0.9 51.9 59.7 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -1.8 -4.4 0.7 49.5 57.6 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -2.5 -4.0 0.8 50.4 59.9 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -1.6 -3.8 -4.3 0.7 48.2 59.0 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.9 -4.7 0.7 47.7 57.8 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -0.8 -3.1 0.7 49.2 56.9 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.6 -4.0 0.9 51.6 58.7 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.3 -4.5 0.8 49.7 59.0 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.4 1.0 58.6 57.7 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -5.6 -3.9 -5.2 0.6 49.1 55.8 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -0.4 -1.6 0.9 54.1 57.6 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -9.7 -7.8 -6.7 0.4 47.5 53.8 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.2 -2.1 0.9 52.6 59.2 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -0.5 -1.5 0.9 56.9 56.6 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -1.3 -1.9 0.7 51.5 57.2 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -2.3 -3.3 0.7 49.4 57.4 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -1.5 -1.9 -3.3 0.7 53.0 59.1 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.3 -2.8 -4.3 0.7 51.0 58.5 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -1.3 -2.2 0.8 53.5 58.6 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.6 -4.2 0.8 52.1 58.7 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -6.5 -4.3 -5.8 0.5 48.6 55.0 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 0.9 56.1 58.1 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------