***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.3 2.0 71.2 70.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 -0.9 -1.5 -0.9 1.7 69.0 67.1 -4.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 1.0 0.3 -0.7 1.9 72.6 69.3 -2.7 -0.9 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -3.3 -2.9 -3.4 2.4 74.7 72.4 -8.8 -5.5 -4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 2.4 74.7 71.8 -3.5 -2.3 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 -2.1 -2.2 -3.6 2.6 72.0 75.9 -4.1 -3.3 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 1.7 69.8 67.4 -4.2 -2.6 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -5.3 -5.3 -3.1 2.7 71.8 74.3 -8.8 -6.0 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 0.1 -0.5 -1.9 2.2 70.4 71.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.7 2.6 71.6 73.0 -3.8 -2.4 -1.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 -1.1 -1.1 -2.7 2.5 72.3 73.0 -3.6 -2.2 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -1.5 -2.5 2.7 73.6 75.5 -3.7 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 -1.1 -0.7 -2.7 2.7 78.3 76.4 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.9 2.0 71.4 70.7 -3.4 -1.6 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 -1.1 -0.9 -3.2 2.1 69.1 70.5 -4.2 -3.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 -0.5 -0.8 -3.0 2.5 73.5 74.1 -3.0 -1.9 -1.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 -1.1 -2.2 -1.1 1.4 63.2 64.3 -4.7 -3.0 -1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 2.8 73.6 73.9 -4.7 -3.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 1.7 70.3 67.8 -4.9 -2.2 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 -4.7 -4.4 -4.2 2.7 73.9 72.9 -8.9 -6.5 -5.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 2.0 71.6 70.0 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -1.1 -2.0 -1.2 1.3 62.5 64.1 -5.1 -2.8 -1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 -1.2 -0.9 -1.1 1.8 73.0 69.3 -4.3 -2.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 -1.3 -0.8 -1.9 2.3 73.1 71.8 -3.7 -2.9 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 2.4 76.8 72.6 -3.3 -2.0 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 -1.3 0.2 -2.2 2.9 85.7 79.7 -3.7 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 2.2 74.1 71.5 -3.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.3 2.3 71.5 71.8 -5.1 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -2.6 -2.2 -3.3 2.9 75.7 74.5 -6.3 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 1.8 70.6 68.3 -4.4 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------